Can the OKC Thunder Beat the San Antonio Spurs?

Russ drains an 18 footer in Duncan's grill.

I'm as big of a bandwagon Oklahoma City Thunder fan as there is. I can't remember a more enjoyable team to watch. Four super likeable, humble stars whose talents blend together perfectly. Kevin Durant—aka Kid Clutch—is the answer to the question What's cooler than being cool? Never afraid of the moment, never gets overly emotional, he's one of the NBA's 2 or 3 best players and gets better every time we see him play. Russell Westbrook is the teams high-energy, high-emotion guy who's constantly firing up his teammates and the crowd while attempting to tear an oblique muscle after big plays. As scary as it sounds, he might be a better all-around player than KD. James Harden, this season's 6th man of the year, is the scoring spark off the bench. He's really a starter but has accepted the role of 2nd unit and late game facilitator for the betterment of the team. Then there's Serge Ibaka, who's still learning how to play the game of basketball, but is already the best shot blocker in the league.

On paper, the Zombie-Sonics¹ look like they can not only beat the Spurs but should be favored to do so. Danny Green and rookie Kawhi Lenard have the daunting task of trying to guard Durant, Westbrook should be able to get buckets all day against Tony Parker, neither Harden or Manu Ginobili can defend each other so that's a wash and Kendrick Perkins—widely considered the best post defender in the league—should be able to do as good a job as anyone on Tim Duncan.

On paper, Durant averages 35+ PPG, Harden and Russ get to the rim at will, Ibaka and Perkins control the paint and OKC moves on to play the Heat in the Finals.²

Basketball games aren't played on paper though, and as good as the Thunder have been playing, the Spurs are coming into the Western Conference Finals hotter than anyone ever has³ and are somehow still being overlooked. They're the most complete team in the NBA. They can beat you out of the post with Ducan, off penetration and pick-n-rolls from Parker and Ginobili, they have a slew of good 3 point shooters and they play defense with an incredible level of intelligence. For the Thunder to beat them they're going to need play 4 games the way they played in game 1 against the Lakers.

The Spurs perceived edge in experience is overblown. Two of their 5 starters—Green and Lenard—never played in a single playoff game prior to this season and OKC has crammed 4-5 years worth of experience into the past 12 months. They made it to the conference finals last year and 5 of their 8 wins this postseason have been late game comebacks. 2 of the wins came after being down 13 points in the 4th quarter, 2 were after being down 7 in the 4th and they were trailing inside the last minute of another. That condensed experience, against the past 2 NBA champions, is enough to turn their four stars—all 23 years old or younger—into seasoned vets.

KD shoots over Kawhi Lenard.

The Spurs big advantage is really their cumulative basketball IQ's.

Ever see a group of middle-age guys at your gym completely embarrass a more athletic team half their age because they play together, swing the ball to the open guy, and always end up getting easy buckets? That’s the San Antonio Spurs, only one of the middle-age guys is the best power forward of all-time and another was a top 5 MVP candidate this season.

In Brazil, they play a different style of soccer than the rest of the world. A rhythmic, finesse game rooted in precise, well timed passes that they call Joga Bonito meaning The Beautiful Game. That's what I'm calling the Spurs offense from now on, Joga Bonito. Their ball movement is one of the most beautiful and underappreciated things in basketball, swinging the ball back and forth until they get a wide open shot, wearing the defense out in the process, and only settling for isolation plays when they get a mismatch. It's impossible to defend unless they're missing shots and turning the ball over.

OKC's biggest problem, however, is that they're too one dimensional. Almost everything for them comes from the perimeter. The main reason the Memphis Grizzle were able to beat the Spurs in the 1st round last year—besides Manu breaking his shooting arm—was Z-Bo and Marc Gasol pounding them on the low block. OKC's best post player is their point guard. You can get by some NBA teams without an inside game, relying on athleticism and a J as wet as Durant's, but not the Spurs. Duncan and Popavich are two of the most intelligent defensive basketball minds we've ever seen. They're Bellichickian the way they take away what you do best.

We saw it in the last series with the Clippers and Chris Paul. As great as Paul is, there were times where it looked like he was playing against 7 defenders. No matter what, the Spurs weren't going to let Chris beat them off of pick-n-roll's or 1-4 flat's. They gave Blake Griffin all the 18 foot jumpers he wanted but there was no way Chris Paul was going to get to the rim or toss any lob passes. The results: The worst playoff series of Paul's career and a sweep of the Clippers.

The Spurs haven't won 29 of their last 31 games by accident. They expose flaws like a 70" Plasma. They'll contest every shot from Durant and Westbrook, force Russ to make the extra pass when he drives, and make Perkins and Ibaka have to be scorers for the Thunder to win.

I'll be rooting my ass off for OKC in this series. If they execute their game plan flawlessly—keep Perk and Ibaka out of foul trouble, avoid turnovers, hit open looks and out rebound San Antonio—and two of their big 3 catch fire for 4 games they can pull off the upset. Anything's possible, but when you live by the J you die by the J, and jump shots are the thing impacted the most by Lemon Booty.⁴

My heart wants the Thunder in 7 but my head says the Spurs in 5.

1 The reanimated corpses of the franchise formerly known as the Seatle Super Sonics.

2 Yep, I already advanced the Heat to the Finals. They're not getting beat by the Sixers or a banged up Celtics team. They're also not beating the Spurs or Thunder in the Finals. #PredictionsSureToGoWrong 

3 Winning 18 games straight, consecutively, back-to-back, in a row. With an average winning margin of nearly 15 points. 

4 Lemon Booty - when your whole body tenses up from pressure causing your butt cheeks to pucker together.