NFL Draft: Even The Bucs Can’t Screw This One Up, Right?

Richardson puts a move on Claiborne in the title Game

Even before Andrew, luck has always been a major player in the NFL Draft. That, along with injuries, inadequate coaching, poor supporting casts, bad environments and other circumstances lead to "can't miss" guys falling short of their expectations as often as they live up to them. There's also a lot of players that, for one reason or another, fall to the later rounds and become franchise changing players like Tom Brady (6th round), James Harrison (undrafted) and Rodney Harrison (5th round).

Between a few unlucky breaks and some poor decisions by management, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven't fared well in recent Drafts.

In 2007 Tampa lost a coin flip to Detroit that gave them the 3rd pick and the Lions the 2nd. Jon Gruden had his sights set on Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson that year and given that Detroit GM Matt Millen was catching all kinds of hell for spending 3 consecutive top 10 picks on WR's from 2003-2005, Gruden called Milen's bluff and refused to trade up to get the future All-Pro. The Lions drafted Johnson, Tampa took underachieving defensive end Gains Adams and not coincidentally, Gruden was fired after the 2008 season.

In 2009 the Buccaneers once again found themselves in a heated battle with Detroit for the NFL's worst record. After winning a meaningless game against the future super bowl champion New Orleans Saints in week 16, Tampa again landed one spot behind the Lions in the draft. Detroit took DT Ndamukong Suh out of Nebraska with the 2nd pick and the Bucs took DT Gerald McCoy from Oklahoma with the 3rd. Even though McCoy has been better than casual fans may realize, he hasn't been anywhere near the devastating force of destruction that Suh has. He's also missed 13 games over his first 2 seasons due to injury.

Both Megatron (as Calvin Johnson has appropriately been nicknamed) and Suh are franchise changing players. And that's what you hope to get out of a top 5 Draft pick, a player whose talented enough to make his teammates better. Suh demands a double team on every snap and if you throw the ball anywhere in bounds chances are Megatron is going to come down with it. While the Bucs were unfortunate to miss out on both of them the Lions have rebuilt their franchise because of them.

By all accounts, this year's NFL draft has 5 players with "A+" talent (Stanford QB Andrew Luck, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III, USC OL Matt Kalil, LSU CB Morris Claiborne and Alabama RB Trent Richardson) and Tampa has the 5th pick. Even the Bucs can't fuck this one up, right?

Luck is going to Indy at 1 and Washington traded away an army of picks to take RG3 at 2. With their atrocious line and need to create holes for Adrian Peterson and protect last year's 1st round pick Christian Ponder, I don't see how the Vikings can pass on Kalil at 3. That leaves Claiborne and Richardson for the Browns and Bucs at 4 and 5.

Like most people, I tend to lean towards the proven guy here. We've seen what Richardson can do against the best defenses in college. His combination of power, speed and agility makes people look downright silly at times. He's an Adrian Peterson caliber running back. Add him to an offense that has a pretty solid receiving core after the addition of Vincent Jackson, a young stud running the show in Freeman¹ and one of the best lines in football and Tampa should be able to put up points on anyone.

Richardson would definitely be the sexy pick. Between fantasy rosters and highlights he'll be a household name (if he isn't already) by week 4. Running back, however, has become the flukiest position in all of sports. Undrafted guys like Arian Foster and LeGarrette Blount become standouts while backs drafted in early rounds end up missing more often than they hit.

Because of the pounding they take, even the guys who are fortunate enough to play well and stay injury free see a dramatic fall off in production before their 30th birthday. The shelf life of an NFL running back is between 4-6 years.

An elite corner back, on the other hand, can shut down half the field for 10+ years. Guys like Deion Sanders, Champ Bailey, Darrell Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha (the Oakland version) can cover up a whole lot of mediocrity at other positions. Claiborne has the talent to become a shut down corner. Time will tell whether or not he becomes one but starting his career off getting mentored by Ronde Barber would give him every chance at success.

The big question mark for Claiborne emerged over the past month after his wonderlic score was leaked on Pro Football Talk (he scored a 4 out of possible 50). That doesn't concern me at all though. For starters, defensive back is largely a technique, feel and reactionary position. It's not as complex as playing quarterback. You're pretty much playing either an inside or outside technique, press coverage or reacting in a zone. It's an Alvin Mack type of position.

While it was a classless move for Mike Florio to release the scores of a test that's supposed to be confidential, I think it could end up having a positive effect on Claiborne.

The relevance of an IQ test in relation to someones ability to play football is debatable, but either way, the perception of Morris Claiborne has now become that he's an idiot. I've heard people jokingly question whether or not he can even read. If that were me, I'd have a little extra motivation to shut those people up. I'd love nothing more than to become the best DB in the league, sign an $80 Million contract and ask those same people if they could help my illiterate-ass read the contract.

Whether they draft Richardson or Claiborne, the Bucs are going to get one hellova football player. If GM Mark Dominic can stumble across a gem or two in the later rounds we might just turn this pirate ship around.

The best part (or maybe the worst) is that the decision is out of Tampa's hands. There's going to be 2 elite talents sitting there, one for Cleveland and one for Tampa and Cleveland is going to make the decision for both.² It's kind of similar to the Greg Oden and Kevin Durant debate before the 2007 NBA Draft. Let's just hope Cleveland takes Oden and Leaves Durant for Tampa.

1 I'm still not completely sold on Josh Freeman. He's a big, talented QB with a strong arm and pretty good mobility. I'm just not sure yet whether or not he has the cerebral part of the game that separates elite quarterbacks in today's NFL and allows them to pick defenses apart. I've seen enough good signs from him ("like big paws on a pup" –Marlo) to think there's a chance he could get there. And this will be the first year he's had a true #1 WR and he's never had a play maker in the backfield.

2 I love that Cleveland is in front of us here. If it were Detroit we'd be fucked but Cleveland's sports teams have a long history of getting screwed. They might be cursed worse than the Cubs and Madden cover combined.