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| Victor Cruz hoists the Lomabardi Trophy at Lucus Oils Stadium (Getty Images) |
It’s that time of year again, time for everyone to make Super Bowl predictions prior to week 1 that we can’t ever seem to get right after week 17. The NFL playoffs have become as unpredictable as Charlie Sheen on a bender. The last 2 Champions weren’t even playoff teams going into the final game of the regular season.
Take last year for example. At 3-2, coming off a home loss to the Seahawks and with Eli Manning getting booed in every game, you had the Giants winning the Super Bowl, right? Ok maybe not, week 5 is kind of early. But you definitely had them winning it all after week 15, right? Losers in 5 of their last 6 including a brutal home loss to a 4-9 Redskins team. Of course you didn’t. Everyone had the 15-1, defending Super Bowl Champion, Green Bay Packers repeating—who lost in their 1st playoff game.
But those minor details are NOT going to stop me from pounding my fist on the table and telling you who is going to win each Division, Wildcard and Super Bowl with absolute certainty.
AFC East: New England Patriots
By far the easiest pick of any division. The Miami Dolphins are clearly playing for the number 1 overall draft pick next season. The Jets second best cornerback is also their best wide receiver, their backup quarterback is their best running back and their D looked more like it was coached by Rex Chapman than Rex Ryan last year.
The Buffalo Bills have a chance to be sneaky good on D after adding Mario Williams to an already stout defensive line. They have a solid one-two punch at running back and one of the leagues most underrated WR’s in Stevie Johnson. But they still have Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. He’s not terrible, but they would need the D and running game to be reminiscent of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens to match the Patriots firepower.
The Patriots have the easiest schedule in football, improved their already dynamic offense by swapping out Chad Ochocinco for a legit deep threat in Brandon Lloyd, and their defense has to get better simply because they could not get any worse. Their only real question mark is a completely retooled offensive line, but between Dante Scarnecchia being one of the best O-Line coaches in football and Tom Brady calling out protections pre-snap, I have complete faith that they will be a formidable unit by seasons end.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
The Browns are the still the Browns and they still play in Cleveland where the entire city has some sort of secret curse that prevents them from ever winning anything in any sport. Take a Cleveland team and move them to another city though and they win a championship within 5 years, ala the 2000 Ravens.
The Steelers D is getting by largely on reputation at this point. Last time we saw them they were making Tim Tebow look like Joe Montana in the Playoffs. Granted they were missing Ryan Clark and Aaron Smith got injured early, but that D is not as deep as they once were and is aging faster than Dominican baseball players. They’re not capable of carrying the team at this point. With an weak offensive line already suffering injury woes and no running game insight, I would be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger is still alive at seasons end, much less healthy.
The Bengals have a solid D, an above average 2nd year QB in Andy Dalton and AJ Green—the best young WR in football along with Julio Jones. If Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis be as productive as they hope while handling the increased workload; Cinci will be really well balanced and could easily grab one of the 2 Wildcard spots.
With Torrey Smith emerging as a legitimate #1 WR, the Baltimore Ravens are as well rounded of a team as there is in the NFL. They’ve got one of the best running games in football behind Vonta Leach and Ray Rice, playmakers all over the field on D, and a quarterback that has reached his potential as a 1st round draft pick. Remember how well Joe Flacco played in the AFC Championship game last year? He out played Tom Brady (In fairness, Brady was going against the far tougher D that day) and was one dropped touchdown pass away from leading Baltimore to the Super Bowl—where the Ravens would have matched up with the Giants far better than the Pats did.
AFC South: The Houston Texans
OK, I lied, the AFC South is the easiest division to predict this season. Andrew Luck will be impressive as a rookie but the Colts are in total rebuild mode and are going need a couple years before they can compete with the big boys. Tennessee should have a much improved run game after adding Chad Huchinson and CJ2K starting the season in shape but the jury is still out on Jake Locker and Kenny Britt—his #1 WR—is an injury risk just getting out of bed in the morning. On D, they lost Cortland Finnegan, their best defensive back to free agency and were 31st in the league at sacking the opposing quarterback last season. 2nd year Head Coach Mike Munchak has his work cut out for him.
The Jacksonville Jaguars should be much improved from last season. Blaine Gabbert has looked pretty good in the preseason and with the additions of WR’s Laurent Robinson and 5th overall pick Justin Blackmon, I expect him to make the biggest leap of all the 2nd year QB’s (not that he had anywhere to go but up). Even if Maurice Jones-Drew has any lingering effects from his holdout, the running game should be solid with second stringer Rashad Jennings back healthy after missing last season due to injury. The Jags D was a top 10 unit in points allowed, passing yards per game and rushing yards per game last season and I expect them to be better this year if for no other reason than the offense will be better and keep them fresher and in better field position.
To quote the great philosopher Pauly D, “Lezbehonest,” the Houston Texans were the best team in football last year before Matt Schaub went down in week 10. They have the NFL’s best running back duo in Arian Foster and Ben Tate, a defense that flourished after switching to a 3-4 under first year coordinator Wade Phillips, and a great special teams unit that has only gotten better with the addition of former LSU running back and track star Trendon Holliday returning kicks. Houston has to be one of the Super Bowl favorites going into the 2012 season.
AFC West: Denver Broncos
The AFC West was laughable last year. The division was up for grabs all season and they all took turns refusing to grab it. The Broncos ended up sneaking in the back door of the playoffs at 8-8 behind a little Tebow magic and early injuries to seemingly everyone on the Chiefs roster.
The Chargers have diminished in talent each of the past 4 seasons, and while having a healthy Antonio Gates going into week 1 is great for Phillip Rivers, having arguable the league’s worst group of wide receivers is not. Add to that that Ryan “If he can stay healthy…” Matthews is already hurt and seems to be constructed entirely of porcelain and their D having more holes in it than Swiss cheese and I have the Chargers finishing last in the division.
The Raiders Darren McFadden—who was leading the NFL in rushing through 6 games last season—is the ultimate “if he can stay healthy…” guy. Going into his 5th season as a pro, he hasn’t made it through a full 16 game schedule yet. If Carson Palmer returns to 2009 form, if Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore play up to their potential, if the defense puts it all together, if McFadden stays healthy… That’s just way too many “ifs” for me. If they finish higher than 3rd in the AFC West I’ll be shocked.
The Kansas City Chiefs are getting back Jamal Charles, Matt Cassel, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki from injury and added Right Tackle Eric Winston and Peyton Hillis to bolster an already solid run game. They have one of the best home field advantages in sports with the always rowdy crowd at Arrow Head and were it not for Peyton Manning joining the division, would be my favorites going in.
People did a lot of justifying on behalf of Tim Tebow last year. There was a lot of bashing his line, receivers and the Broncos D in an attempt to compensate for Tebow’s imperfection. It’s understandable; he’s one of the most likeable people on earth (take it from a Florida State fan). The reality though, is that Denver’s offensive line is one of the best units in the league (one of the main reasons Peyton choose the Mile High city), Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are solid young wide outs, and the D gave up an average of less than 17 points per game during Tebow’s Magical run of 7 wins in 8 games. And the defense did that with an offense that averaged more 3-and-outs than any other team. Imagine how good they can be with a possession play caller like Peyton Manning running the show. They’re not only AFC West favorites; they’re on the short list for Super Bowl favorites.
AFC Wildcards: Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals
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| Can star RB Arian Foster lead the Texans to the promised land this year? (Getty Images) |
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks
The Arizona Cardinals have John Skelton starting at QB. They’ll have more “Skelton’s in the closet” jokes this year than wins. I expect the Rams to improve drastically under 1st year Head Coach Jeff Fischer, just not this season. They have the worst D in the league and with QB Sam Bradford already needing ankle surgery after the season; things could get ugly quick in The Lou.
Call me crazy but I don’t love the 49ers this season as much as everyone else seems to. Too many things went well for them last year. No injuries, the much anticipated arrival of Alex Smith in his 7th season, a defense that played out of its mind and huge plays on special teams. They could do it all again but I suspect a little bit of a sophomore slump for Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. If rookie QB Russell Wilson continues to play at the level he has in the preseason, the Seattle Seahawks could easily be this years “out of nowhere” team like the 49ers were last year. They have just as good of a D and a solid running game but I have to see them put it all together before I can trust Pete Carroll’s boys. I’m rolling with San Fran almost by default. Ahh screw it, I’m taking the Seahawks.
NFC South: The New Orleans Saints
Never underestimate the power of the “nobody believes in us” and “everyone is out to get us” mentalities in sports—remember the 2007 Patriots post Spy Gate? 16-0 in the regular season and giving beatdowns to everyone in sight. The New Orleans Saints have both of them this season—which can hopefully compensate for them not having a Head Coach—after Commissioner Roger Goodell put the hammer down on the organization for the Bounty Gate scandal. The Saints aren’t going to win all 16 regular season games but I expect them to play every one of them pissed off with a chip on their shoulders. They improved their defense in free agency, have serious weapons at receiver, runningback and and tight end. Oh yea, and they have this guy named Drew Brees at quarter back. I've heard he's pretty good. The Saints have the a great chance of becoming the 1st team to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Atlanta Falcons fans know why I’m not picking them, because they’re the Atlanta Falcons. Whether it’s running the same play after a timeout on 4th and 2 or dropping a wide open touchdown pass, the Dirty Birds always find a way to screw things up. Matt Ryan has a beast of a receiver in 2nd year star Julio Jones, Roddy White is as reliable and consistant as they come and the ageless wonder Tony Gonzales is still playing at a high level at 56 years of age. I even like Jaquizz Rodgers as the perfect change of pace/3rd down back to compliment Michael “no longer a burner” Turner in the backfield. On paper they’re the most talented team in the division but again, they’re the Falcons. They’ll find a way to screw it up.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were absolutely pathetic last year during the 10 game losing streak that ended their season. They completely quit on former Head Coach Raheem Morris. They should be better this year under rookie Head Coach Greg Schiano but they’ve got a tough hill to climb with all those holes on defense. They made some big moves in the offseason adding WR Vincent Jackson and All-Pro LG Carl Nicks on offense. Nicks would have given Tampa one of the best lines in football had Pro Bowl RG Davin Joseph’s season ending injury during the preseason not made the pickup a wash. Even if overhyped 4th year QB Josh Freeman continues to be nothing more than a game manager, the addition of 1st round pick RB Doug Martin out of Boise State should make Tampa’s offense more balanced and effective, just not enough to make the playoffs this year.
The Carolina Panthers are going to be a fun team to watch because of Cam Newton if nothing else. That’s the problem though, there’s really nothing else, at least not in the passing game. After Cam and zombie of Steve Smith’s exploded over the first 2 games last season, teams figured out that Smitty still has elite speed and Cam can get it to him deep. After teams starting taking the deep balls away from them, both of their numbers declined drastically. They have a stable of good running backs, and the possibly the best dual threat QB in league history, but without a legit 2nd and 3rd receiving option defenses will be stacking the box heavy against the Panthers this season. They’ll be at the Super Dome in early February for the Super Bowl, but they’ll be paying for their tickets like everyone else.
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
Every team in the NFC East has glaring weaknesses. Despite adding CB’s Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne, the Cowboys D is still suspect and the offensive line is still keeping Tony Romo up at night with nightmares instead of up healthy in the pocket. O-Lines are a funny thing in football though. They can start out atrocious and end up gelling into a solid unit by mid-season. With Bill Callihan coaching Romo’s body guards this season, I’m betting that’s exactly how this plays out. Contrary to popular opinion, Romo is the best QB in this division and I have more faith in their explosive second year running back DeMarco Murray staying healthy than I do in Michael Vick.
The Washington Redskins still have Mike and Kyle Shannahan coaching them. That alone is enough to not make the playoffs but I also think that the hype has gone way too far on RG3. I love everything about the kid; how he carries himself on and off the field, the touch he has on deep balls, the straight-line speed he has, but I don’t love him as rookie. Griffin is NOT Cam Newton. I think he struggles as a rookie in dealing with the pressure—both in the pocket and from the thirsty DC fans—and struggles reading the complexity and speed of NFL defenses, as most rookie QB’s do.
The Giants go up and down more than a heart monitor. People forget because they won the Super Bowl but the G-Men weren’t very good last year, at least not in the regular season. They snuck into the playoffs at 9-7 and then flipped the switch. Factoring in the post SB lull with a team full of injury prone guys like WR Hakeem Nicks, CB Prince Amukamara and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, I think they’re much more likely to finish at 7-9 or 8-8 than reaching double-digit wins.
The Eagles only real weakness is Michael Vick’s injury risk. If he stays healthy, the Philly run away with the NFC East, but guess what Vick’s not going to do? Stay healthy. He’s only made it through all 16 games once in his 10 year career and got injured twice in just 16 snaps this preseason. X-Rays per game is not the stat you want your franchise QB leading the league in. LeSean McCoy might be the best running back in football and after signing a new contract, DeSean Jackson should actually be trying his hardest this season.1 The defense should be as tough as we thought they were going to be going into last season and the pressure from the “Dream Team” comparisons has been replaced with a “Nobody believes in us” unifying motivation. None of that matter though when QB1 is out for 6-8 weeks after game 1.
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
While the Minnesota Vikings will be competing with Miami, Cleveland and St. Louis for the number one overall draft pick in 2013, the other 3 teams in the NFC North have Super Bowl aspirations.
Unfortunately for the Detroit Lions, their championship dreams are mostly hubris. They still have a bottom tier defense, their lack of a running game leaves them predictable and one dimensional, and Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have had far more injury riddled seasons than healthy ones. If Mike Leshoure can be productive when he returns from suspension, if Stafford, Megatron and Kevin Smith can stay healthy, if the D can make a drastic improvement…That’s far too many “ifs” for me. I have the Lions finishing at 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
Chicago really did work during the offseason. Trading for Brandon Marshall and drafting Alshon Jeffery gives Jay Cutler—one of the most underrated QB’s in the league—the best 2 receivers he’s had since he arrived in the Windy City. A healthy Matt Forte and new goal line back Michael Bush rounds out the much improved offense and the always tough Brian Urlacher led D gives Da Bears its best chance at winning a championship since Walter Payton retired.
How do you pick against the Green Bay Packers? Easy, you don’t. Teams typically have a disappointing season the year after they make it to the Super Bowl. Green Bay gave a giant middle finger to that trend and went 15-1 instead last season. You can’t really say that they’ll improve on 15-1 but they still have the best QB in the game, a top 3 offense overall and I expect the defense to play much better after adding USC linebacker Nick Perry in the draft and Charles Woodson moving over to safety. I have the Packers finishing with best record in the NFC, again.
NFC Wildcards: Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons
AFC Championship game: Houston Texans over the Baltimore Ravens
NFC Championship game: Green Bay Packers over the New Orleans Saints
Super Bowl: Houston Texans over the Green Bay Packers
1 No joke, he actually said that he wasn’t giving it is all last year because he thought he was being under paid. DeSean Jackson ladies and gentlemen, DeSean Jackson!
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